Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Blink

Like always, you turn to poetry, when it seems as if you cannot find the words....

"Sabse Khatarnaak woh chaand hota hai
jo har hatyakaand ke baad
veeraan huye aangano.n mein chadhta hai
par aapki aankho.n mein mircho.n ki tarah nahin gadhta"

[That moon is the moon dangerous
that, after each murder,
rises above these desolate homes
but does not descend into your eyes like chillies.]

From Paash's 'Sabse khatatnaak cheez' or The Most Dangerous Thing.

A lady called Chandni sent an email today, citing these lines; she also forwarded a message from Anhad along a breakdown of the voting patterns in Gujarat. It asked us to remember that the margins were slim. That for every 37,722 people who voted for the BJP in Rajpipla, there were many more who voted against (37,091 for the Congress - a difference of 631 votes - and 2807 for the BSP).

I hardly batted an eyelash when I'd heard of the result; I hadn't allowed myself to. But for some reason, this email is making me blink. Furiously.

I'm going to try and put up that list in this post, but in any case, you can go and look at the details on the Election Commission website.

CONSTITUENCY

BJP VOTE

CONGRESS VOTE

DIFFERENCE

BSP

IND

1

RAJPIPLA

37722

37091

631

2807

2

MANDAL

34843

34166

677

3818

3

KHAMBHALIA

40358

39560

798

4275

4

KANKREJ

37930

37090

840

28934

5

JAMNAGAR

33021

31941

1080

1098

6

KADI

65835

64508

1327

3848

7

GADHADA

50579

49152

1427

1478

8

SURAT CITY

39607

37908

1699

RJD-2584

9

ANAND

63745

61975

1770

12134

10

KALOL

27565

25255

1884

1427+1016

11

CHIKHLI

59471

57204

2267

2708

12

SIDHPUR

52610

50181

2429

2694

13

MANGROL

48256

45625

2631

3389

2782

14

BOTAD

69662

66474

3188

2134

3188

15

VIRAMGAM

47643

44327

3316

3286

3364

16

MANSA

44381

41011

3370

10478

17

GANDHINAGAR

81864

78116

3748

1766

5128

18

RAKHIAL

53993

50048

3945

1395

1428

19

DASADA

38174

34108

4066

3898

2408

20

SIHAR

50756

46638

4118

3501

2973

21

AMRELI

48767

44578

4189

3143+1397

22

VISAVADAR

38179

33950

4229

3399

2074

23

UPLETA

36602

31917

4685

1946

SP-4141

24

SOMNATH

61233

56004

5229

7099

25

BAYAD

40395

34711

5684

3107

3569

26

CHHOTA UDAIPUR

44422

38304

6118

8056

27

KALAWAD

39497

33225

6272

3449

3693

28

WADHAWAN

47466

40564

6902

23261

29

DANGS

56860

48977

7883

5010+4446

30

KUTIYANA

37130

27980

9150

3064

8060

31

VADGAM

50481

40776

9705

16372

32

ABDASA

39004

28985

10019

12397

33

CAMBAY

50163

40086

10077

3081

8684

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

God...It sure does make you blink...may I forward this portion of your webpage to every sane person I know, with your permission? I guess a lot of people would be interested to see this..The moon stops being chillies for some time now and i see hope dripping like a saline into my Gujarat ravaged veins and mind..I too didn't blink when I saw the result in the news channels..I had switched on the television with some fear and i just could sigh and nod once I saw the results..Thanks for posting such a life giving piece of writing..i too am blinking furiously now...by the way, i stumbled on to your webpage through another blog---http://semim.blogspot.com/. By the way, I am not the owner of this blog. i say this just in order to prevent any misunderstandings..

Candid Confessions said...

It is such a startling observation! I am at least consoled that there was as much opposition to the BJP as much as the support!

Opinionated said...

This is very encouraging in a way. I've been seething ever since the Gujarat results. Wondering how a people can be so biased, so polarized, so blind. Unable to understand how such facism is allowed to prosper in historically & constitutionally secular India.
But his is an eye-opener.
It possibly points to some electoral dhandli as well. How can they win 60% of the seats but each one of them by such slim margins? I'm wondering if there's been some behind the scenes activity on the ballot boxes?

Annie said...

anonymous: go ahead and forward. it's not my data
candid: yes, there is that.
opinionated: optimism is good, but not to the point of shrouding facts. fact is, modi won. and with slim margins in places like rajpipla but with rather big margins elsewhere. 7000 or 9000 votes are not to be scoffed at. what was equally to blame was the congress' reluctance in invest in strong, local leaders.

Opinionated said...

Possibly, but I think this one is bigger than mere party initiatives.
What will happen now with this monster being in power for the next 5 years???

Opinionated said...

EUREKA!!! A SOLUTION!!!

http://zigzackly.blogspot.com/2007/11/hitting-gujarat-and-west-bengal.html#links

http://citizensforpeace.in/blog/2007/11/14/statement-on-nandigram/#comment-40

I'm starting today!!! Any takers?

Jai_Choorakkot said...

opinionated,

happens all the time in Kerala where we flip-flop every 5 yrs on margins of high-100s to low-1000s almost across the board- i think even safe seats are won with 8000. No foul play necessarily indicated.

annie,

repeating anonymous at #1, or link to your post here?

regards,
Jai

Jai_Choorakkot said...

Just dbl checked the EC site. This list above is incomplete. Scrolled the constituencies in reverse from Wankaner where the Congress won but by as much as BJP plus independent Hindu candidates (to reverse the logic of this table)

In Visnagar, the BJP won by a margin of 29K+, with all others - indep+ BSP polling only 23K

In Umbergaon the BJP won by 51K+.

Didnt check any further.

Still, yes, it does make an impact. Its not an even divide as suggested by this table, but lots closer than I thought.

regards,
Jai

Opinionated said...

Hmmm... So if it's not close, then Gujarat is more polarized than I thought?

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